Let E_{1}, E_{2}, E_{3}, …………. E_{n} mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and A is the event occurs after E_{1}, E_{2}, E_{3}, …………. E_{n}.

By multiplication theorem,

, where i = 1, 2, 3, … n

** Example 1:** A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.

__Solution: __

E_{1}: Six comes up.

E_{2}: Six does not comes up.

A: The man reports it is a six.

By Baye’s theorem, required probability is:

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